team.

That's Amy Walter of The Cook Political# Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Great to see you both.

AMY WALT AMNA candidates in Iowa as we talk about# this las The latest Des Moines Register/NBC News Iowa poll# shows Mr. Trump with a comman 51 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers saying they# will support him, 19 percent for Mr. DeSantis, 16## percent for Haley, 5 percent for Vivek Ramaswamy,# and 4 percent for former Governor Chris Christie.

Amy, we talk a lot about DeSantis# and Haley and what's at stake here## for them in this first contest.

What# does a win look like for them in Iow AMY WALTER: Yes.

AMNA NAWAZ: Right.

we have seen for these last few weeks, but if# he won by that margin, that would be the biggest## margin that any competitive Republican# caucus winner has come out of Iowa with.

Fifty percent would also be a statement, because# for weeks -- now, well not for weeks -- for the## entire campaign, his rivals have made the case# that there is a base of support for Donald Trump,## but there's a bigger base of support for people# who are willing to look beyond Donald Trump,## whether they are truly voters on the Republican# side who don't want to see Donald Trump or people## who are ready to maybe turn the page,# even though they do like Donald Trump.

With 50 percent of the vote, that would sort# of close the door on that.

And folks I talk## to in this state, they do see a real fight# for second place, that Nikki Haley has had## a great deal of momentum.

We haven't seen# polls since the holidays, so it's unclear## whether some of this back-and-forth that we're# seeing with she and Trump is having an impact.

But I think that, for Ron DeSantis,# he has the most at stake, certainly,## because he has the endorsements and he's really# banked his entire campaign on doing well in## Iowa.

Losing whether it's by 10 or 20 or 30# points, it's hard to turn that into a win.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, is this# existential for Ron DeSantis?

TAMARA KEITH: He has done the full Grassley.# He's gone to all most of his campaign operation to Iowa.

He came# in with such incredibly high ex if he then comes in third place# in Iowa, that is existential.

That is a major problem for his going campaign.# Now, he had a press call with reporters today## and he said, I have got plans for things that# I'm going to be doing in New Hampshire.

I have## got events in New Hampshire.

I have got events# in South Carolina.

I have got events i He's got plans, but plans can change.

Absolutely,# plans can change if it doesn't go well fo AMNA NAWAZ: One of the keys... AMY WALTER: And he doesn't have money, by the way.

TAMARA KEITH: Right.

AMNA NAWAZ: Righ that the Haley campaign and her supporters are.

AMNA NAWAZ: Another key part of any But one -- the huge lead w we talk a lot about in Iowa, which is those# white evangelicals in the state.

It hasn't## always been that way, though.

He hasn't# always had their support.

Back in 2016,## it was about 22 percent of evangelicals said they# would support him.

That is now Ta m, how do you look at those numbers?

How# did he get that kind of support growth?

TAMARA KEITH: OK, so in 2016, he# was talking about 2 Corinthians## and it sounded like a not a Bible# verse, but like a joke about a bar.

And now he is the person who put on the# Supreme Court a conservative majority that## overturned Roe v. Wade and gave evangelical# Christians the Dobbs decision.

I mean,## what more does he need to do?

And# also I think that, absolutely,## as that one voter said, they're not# looking for him to be their pastor.

But part of Christianity is# forgiveness.

And I think that## a lot of his sort of personal sins# have been forgiven by these voters.

AMNA NAWAZ: Amy, how do you look at that?

AMY WALT themselves as evangelical, it's less about the# religious views than their political views.

And being white evangelical and being a supporter# of Trump have now become synonymous, so that, yes,## I do think the Dobbs case and delivering# on some of those issues matters a lot,## but it's also the fact that they see that# their identity, their cultural identity,## somebody who's fighting for them.

We talked -- you talked, the sense that this is a group of# people who are under siege by the left,## and the only person standing# up for them is Donald Trump.

AMNA NAWAZ: That's a message that resonates.

AMY WALTER: Right.

this sort of strain of revisionist history# in these closing messages before Iowa,## not just looking back to three years# ago and the January 6 insurrection.

He calls the people who carried out the violent# attack patriots and hostages and said the all be pardoned, but going back to the Civil# War, and we are now talking about the root## cause of the Civil War.

Somehow, that's up for# debate.

You heard Mr. Biden, President Biden,## reference this explicitly in his speech in South# Carolina at the Mother Emanuel AME Church today.

Just take a listen to what he said.

JOE BIDEN, President of the# United States: L for those who don't seem t (APPLAUSE) JOE BIDEN: There is no negotiation about that.

Now -- now we're living in an era# of a second lost cause.

Once again,## there are some in this country trying,# trying to turn a loss into a lie.

a lie which, if allowed to live, will once# again bring terrible damage to this country.

We're talking about whose version# of history you'r AMY WALTER: That's exactly right, and that's the# throug here between a debate about the Civil War, which# seems like t or the fight had been over many years# ago, to now, which is his point being,## if you're going to lie about the cause of the# Civil War, as had -- we had seen, whether it's## calling it the noble cause, and you're going to# lie about the election results, lie about what## happened on January 6, those things share one# thing in common, especially for Black voters.

They are denying your voice.

What the president# was saying from the pulpit today was, when he## says that the election was stolen, what Donald# Trump is telling you, the voters in these pulpits,## many of whom saw your grandparents and# your parents denied the right to vote,## he's saying your voice and# your vote doesn't matter.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, that's why we hear# this as a centerpiece of not necessarily his record, right?

TAMARA KEITH: No, he -- certainl worry.

We're going to hear a lot more about# Bidenomics or whatever However, his campaign is very much centered on,# what America do you want?

What America do y to see?

And he is making an argument that Donald# Trump and other Republicans, the MAGA Republicans,## as he calls them, that they have a different# vision of America and that it is antidemocratic.

And so that is very clearly becoming# the centerpiece of President Biden's## campaign.

He is drawing a through# line from Charlottesville and what## happened at Mother Emanuel right through# to January 6, saying it's about extremism## and political violence and that that isn't# something that Americans should stand for.

And there is some indication that, actually,# a lot of Americans agree with that.

And he## is trying to build a coalition of people who# don't want the history of January 6 revised.## They may not necessarily want the policies he is# selling.

And that's what he's trying to thread.

And also it's worth noting that he# went to South Carolina.

That's the## state that will hold the first Democratic primary.

AMNA NAWAZ: Right.

TAMA which are a group of voters th ough you wouldn't know it from the call# and response there at Mother Emanuel.

AMNA NAWAZ: Well, let's remember# caucuses are different than like## showing up to vote or rallies.

It's# all Just in the last few seconds we have left,# what's the one thing you're watching for?

(CROSSTALK) very cold there.

I know# Iowans are very, very ha But when you look at the last poll, say, that FOX# News d to showing up and voting were Ron DeSantis# supporters, actually.

This could matter in## terms of who comes in second is folks who are# willing to brave really, really cold weather.

AMNA NAWAZ: What are you watching, Tam?

TAMARA KEI cold weather.

What I'm also watching# is, let's say Trump does win, which,## by all indications, he will.

Does he win by a# lot, or does he win by a small enough margin## that it gives Nikki Haley and Ron# DeSantis some jet fumes to go on?

AMNA NAWAZ: We will know in a week.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

AMY WALTER: Thank you.

TAMARA KEITH: Yo AM