AMNA NAWAZ: Good evening.

I'm Amna Naw GEOFF BENNET On the "News U.S. secretary of state tries to stave off a broader conflict in the Middle East.

ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of State: It's clearly not in the interest of anyone, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah-, for that matter, to see this escalate.

AMNA NAWAZ: Defense Secretary Austin is in the hospital.

Why the White House and the public weren't told about it for days.

GEOFF BENNETT: And hundreds of flights are canceled after the Alaska Airlines prompted federal authorities to ground the Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft.

(BREAK) GEOFF BENNETT: Welcome to the "NewsHour."

As Israel's offensive in Gaza continues, a new front is heating up on the country's northern border.

AMNA NAWAZ: this morning, an Israeli strike killed one of Hezbollah's high-ranking members, all this as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels again to the region, hoping to keep the conflict from spreading.

William Brangham reports.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Whil Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Hezbollah that today's targeted killing could be just the beginning.

BENJAMIN NET to restore s We gave Hezbollah an example of what This is what will happen here in the north.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: This comes as to the region.

As Blinken left Saudi ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. Secretary of State: It's clearly not in the interes Lebanon, Hezbollah, for that matter, to see this escalate and to see an actual conflict.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: President Biden was in South Carolina today when protesters interrupted him, calling for a cease-fire.

PROTESTER: Cease-f WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Biden was JO E BIDEN, President of the United States: I have been quietly working with the Israeli government to get them to reduce and significantly get out of Gaza.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Israeli forces continue their operation in South and Central Gaza, but say they are done with major combat in Northern Gaza.

MARK REGEV, Senior Adviser to Israeli could be the beginning of the end, because we are seein machine in the Northern Gaza Strip.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: But as the so uth to Rafah.

Even from the wreckage left by another Isra MOHAMMED AL-QASSAS, Displaced Palestinian (through translator): We heard a big explosion and, when we got there we found the car as you see it.

The car contains flour, tomatoes, and meat.

It was all for daily sustenance.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Despite her mothers LAYAN ABBID Displaced Palestinian (through translator): We are scared.

We don't want the war.

We are scared.

They bombed the ca We don't want the war.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Ye one of the few still partially operating.

Medical teams there struggle to save those they can.

The shadow of death won't leave this family.

Veteran Palestinian journalist Wael Al Dahdouh tries to stay brave for those of his loved ones still living.

He held his son's hand one last time.

In October, he lost his wife, his daughter, another son, and a grandson, also kille Israeli airstrikes.

Yesterday, Dahdouh's son Hamza, al another colleague, Mustafa Thuraya.

An Israeli drone strike hit their car.

The IDF said the intended target was a terrorist who piloted drones that thre and that two other suspects were killed.

But the Committee to Protect Journalists has called for an independ were driving to an assignment in Gaza.

CPJ has documented 79 journalists killed so in Gaza.

After he mourned and prayed ov done, returned to work, reporting on a war that has stolen almost everything from him.

WAEL AL-DAHDOUH, Palestinian Journalist (through translator): The world must see with their eyes and not with Israel's eyes.

It must listen and watch all that is ha What has Hamza done to them and what has my family done to them?

What have civilians in Gaza Strip done to them?

They have not done anything.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: GEOFF BENNETT: In the day's other headlines: A powerful winter storm walloped the country's midsection, with some states expecting a foot of snow.

Blizzard warnings and other advisories were in effect across a swathe of states New Mexico to northern Michigan.

This morning, people in Eastern Colorado captu And, in Kansas, drivers faced heavy slush as they rushed to stock up on staples.

In Iowa, the snow could be followed by subzero cold for next Monday's Republican presidential caucuses.

In Ukraine, it stepped up a winter assault.

More than 50 missiles and drones targeted to western parts of the country.

In Kharkiv, rescuers pulled one man from h pile up on the rubble.

The combined strikes k 30.

Pope Francis called It was part of his annual speech on global threats to peace and humanity.

The pontiff spoke to diplomats and addressed the issue of surrogacy, calling it a threat to human dignity.

POPE FRANCIS, Leader o of so-called surrogate motherhood, based on the exploitation of the mother's material needs.

A child is a I hope for an effort by the international community to prohibit this practice.

GEOFF BENNETT: The pope has long opposed surrogacy, calling it -- quote -- "uterus Wh ile surrogacy is common in the U.S., the practice is illegal in Italy and illegal or restricted in much of Europe.

The first U.S. moon landing attempt in 5 Astrobotic Technology's robotic lander successfully launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida, before dawn today.

But it quickly developed The company says it's considering an alternative mission for the spacecraft.

And on Wall Street, stocks made back most of last week's losses, as interest rates on Treasury bonds eased.

The Dow Jones industrial average gain The Nasdaq rose 319 points, more than 2 percent.

The S&P 500 added 66 points.

Still to come on the "New a government shutdown; President Biden makes a campaign stop at the South Carolina church targeted by a racist mass shooting in 2015; Tamara Keith and Amy Walter analyze the presidential race one week before Iowa; and as the NCAA football championship kicks off, a look at the changing landscape of college sports.

AMNA NAWAZ: Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is still in the hospital, but out of intensive care, after spending at least four days there last week for complications from an elective procedure performed before Christmas.

Many questions about his illness remain, including why he w or announce publicly that he was hospitalized.

Nick Schifrin has been following this, and Ni ck, it's good to see you.

NICK SCHIFRI AMNA NAWAZ: And how is President Biden responding NICK SCHIFRIN: So the Pentagon said good spirits.

And the Nati leadership.

But, as you especially after the Pentagon admitted that there was actually a second stay in the hospital that Austin didn't disclose to the public or to the president.

So let's go through the calendar, according to senior White House defens congressional officials I spoke to.

So, on December 22, Austin underwen temporarily to his deputy, but did not inform her of why or acknowledge it publicly.

That is hospital visit number one.

On January 1, Austin participated in a day experienced -- quote -- "extreme pain" and was taken to Walter Reed intensive care in an ambulance, hospital visit number two.

No national security official was informed.

And even when, the next day, January 2, he again transferred his authorities to D Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks -- you see her there -- nobody told her why she was assuming the responsibilities.

Austin's front office informed the chairman and the Jo Brown, but nobody called the president.

That didn't happen for another two days, January wa s informed and Hicks learned for the first time that Austin was in the hospital.

That was the day, Amna, by the way, that a U.S. drone strike killed the head of an Iranian-backed militia in Baghdad.

The next day, January 5, exactly two weeks after the initial procedure, informed Congress and releases a public statement.

Among the many questions that remain unanswered tonight, Amna, what was Austin's initial procedure?

Was he ever incapacitated or unconscious?

And why did the chief of staff, or anyone, frankly, wait for so Security Council?

AMNA NAWAZ: And, also, how is the Pentagon explaining the delay in notifying the national security adviser?

NICK SCHIFRI They say tha excuse that they say of why.

They do admit that they And, today, Major General Pat Ryder, the spokesman for the Defense Department, he fell on a sword, basically.

He admitted during a Thursday briefing because he didn't have enough details.

He said this today in a gaggle with reporters: "I should have tried to learn pr ess for an earlier public acknowledgement," but he also added later: "I did not feel I was at liberty to disclose that information."

That is an explanation that is not sitting well with Congress.

Even some Democrats are expressing some concern.

And take a look at this.

This is from Senat Appropriations Committee.

She's been an ally o She said -- quote secrecy.

He must be f AMNA NAWAZ: Nick, there are still so many unanswered questions.

Why is all of this important to put together th here?

NICK SCHIFRI or she is going to be hospitalized.

But the secretary of def President Biden and is expected to be accessible to the president even in the most dire security situation, some kind of nuclear exchange.

Take a listen to Columbia Law Professor Matt Waxman, who's a former NSC state and DOD official.

MATTHEW WAXMAN, Columbia Law School: This is dangerous for several reasons.

The president may need advice, military or defense policy advice, on short notice.

We have military forces engaged actively in operations under threat, in some cases, under attack.

And, finally for which a secretary or acting secretary is needed immediately.

There absolutely has to be a review.

I mean, this is a terrible NICK SCHIFRIN: The Pentagon promises to do that review, Amna, and insist that there was no break in the continuity of military operations.

And despite the political criticism, the Pentagon says Austin has no plans to resign, and the White House has no plans to ask for it.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, I kno Nick Schifrin, great reporting, as a NICK SCHIFRIN: Thanks very much.

GEOFF BENNETT: Investigators say a key piece of the plane that blew off an Alaska Airlines flight has been recovered.

A teacher near Portland Oregon found hope it will help them figure out what went wrong.

The accident that happened 16,000 feet in the air has sparked new ma ker Boeing.

Our aviation corresponde MILES O'BRIEN: Investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board we to try to determine what caused the fuselage blowout on the Alaska Airlines jetliner.

It's the latest in a string of setbacks to plague Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft.

Friday's incident affected a plug covering an unused exit door.

Passenger video showed the gaping hole in the side of the plane.

The rapid decompression caused the cockpit door to fly open.

Headrests ripped off seats.

The two seats next to the panel that b None of the 171 passengers or six crew members were seriously hurt.

Emma Vu was one of those passengers.

EMMA VU, Alaska Airlines Passenger: I just An d it wasn't like any other turbul So, that's when I knew, like, oh, gosh, this is something way different.

And yes, I started freaking out.

MILES O'BRIEN: The Alaska p.m. Friday en route to Ontario, California.

The panel blew off about six minutes into the flight, as the plane was at an altitude of 16,000 feet.

The plane returned to Portland, making blowout.

Jennifer Homendy chair JENNIFER HOMENDY, Chair, National Transportation Safety Board: So, very loud, between the air and everything going on around them.

And it was very violent when the rapid decompression in the door was expelled out of the plane.

MILES O'BRIEN: The Federal Aviation Administration quickly grounded Boeing 737 MAX 9 jets with the same panel to undergo safety checks, forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights.

The NTSB said the jetliner that suffered the blowout was not being used for flights to Hawaii after a warning light that could have indicated a pressurization issue lit up on three separate flights.

They acknowledged the light may be All this comes after problems with the 737 MAX's MCAS safety system led to deadly crashes of the planes in Indonesia and Ethiopia back in 2018 and 2019.

That issue grounded the MAX jets for nearly two years.

The airlines that fly the 737 MAX 9 are now actively inspecting those plug doors to see what might have gone wrong.

The Associated Pre so we will be watching that one very closely.

GEOFF BENNETT: More to come on th So, Miles, we know that pilots by the specific aircraft involved in that incident.

There's no known connection between that problem and the issue with the midair bl least not yet.

How is this inve MILES O'BRIEN: Well, that's some And it could be completely coincidental, Geoff, or it could be v Imagine a scenario where there was some sort of slow leak, which might have given that indication of a pressurization problem in the flight deck.

What's interesting is, those lights came on in some cases while the aircraft was taxing on the ground.

And so I don't know how mu Let's pin that up on the bulletin board for now.

GEOFF BENNETT: Meantime, the NTSB released these images of Help us understand what this door plug does and why some models of this aircraft have them and others don't.

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, so much over the recent years.

It can have upwards of 230 seats in it.

Some low-cost airliners do, in fact, cram that many seats in.

But if you have 189 seats or less, you don't need those exit doors, because you don't have to get as many people out in 90 seconds' time.

So they plug them.

And that's what happen Air Alaska was cappe GEOFF BENNETT: There's another curious, or you could call it troubling, detail here, in that the NTSB said that there was no data available on the cockpit voice recorder because it was not retrieved within two hours.

And that's the point at which recording restarts and overwr First of all, how could that even happen?

And what could it have offered investigators if MILES O'BRIEN: Yes, the airline industry should be a little embarrassed about all of this.

That two-hour loop really kind of dates back to the days of tape, when they could only store so much on these cockpit voice recorders.

Obviously, we're in an era where you have unlimited virtually capability to information.

In order to stop it from recording, you have to pull to do that.

And so it go It's high time -- the National Transportation fo r years -- that the amount of time that is on that loop, the amount that is captur exceed 24 hours, actually 25 hours.

And the airlines have been slow to adopt this.

GEOFF BENNETT: We know this incident happened at an elevatio miles above Oregon.

How much of a factor did that An d would things have been different had this occurred at a high MILES O'BRIEN: Absolutely, Geoff.

The pressure differential between inside and outside at 16,000 feet i per square inch.

It's much greater at 36,000 feet.

The amount of pressure on the door up there would be in exce So it would have had much more of an explosive event.

And, at that altitude, the time of so-called usef be only 10 seconds.

So it would have been a much more d out as well for the passengers and crew.

So a silver lining here that had happened at a r GEOFF BENNETT: This is another black eye for Boeing, which has seen a string of inciden that have resulted in tragedies, groundings, major concerns about safety.

How are they responding to this?

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, they safety is a top priority and they're cooperating with all the investigating authorities.

The company has announced a town hall to presumably discuss some of these issues, but there is a long string of issues here, which may on the surface say -- they seem like they're not connected, but you have to look at the big picture and wonder why this happens repeatedly.

So, there are clearly some questions about its commitment to detail and safety at this point.

GEOFF BENNET in their fleet, they canceled more than 300 flights today because of the 737 MAX 9 grounding.

How long might it take before these airlines are back with these planes in the air?

Or should they even be?

MILES O'BRIE We have already heard a little bit about what United is finding.

If, in fact, it's a case of several bolts that weren't tightened be a fairly easy thing to rectify and put these planes back in the air.

I don't think there's any fundamental design flaw here.

If the bolts weren't tightened, and they can be tightened properly, I think we are all safe getting on board these aircraft.

GEOFF BENNETT: Aviation correspo Miles, thanks, as always.

MILES O'BRIE GEOFF BENNETT: Congressional leaders have reached a spending deal that could prevent a partial government shutdown later this month.

Our congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins, jo So, Lisa, they -- lawmakers, they reached an agreement on the overall spending lev for the rest of the year.

What's in the deal?

LISA DESJARD This is call And it's imp This is the funding that Congress It's called the discretionary funding.

Really, this is the business of governme And this has been such a painstaking debate, especially for Republicans to cut the size of government.

This is one reason Kevin McCarthy So let's look at what the deal was between Leader Schumer in the Senate and ne Mike Johnson in the House.

They agreed to these s Now, here's what we're talking about.

More of that goes to defense, slightly billion, about that.

But what does that mean?

Let's compar And that is significant, I will point out, and our viewers probably noticed, a little bit of an increase there for defense, about 4 percent of an increase there.

But it's significant, because this is kind of stopping the growth of government in a way we haven't seen in a long time.

However, it isn't cutting back in the way that Hou So this is a risk either way.

They have to try and now figure out the details money.

GEOFF BENNET too early to tell?

LISA DESJARDIN And I think there are still some t The biggest one is just the timing.

Let's look at the calendar and what t The first government shutdown deadline is January 19.

That math's not hard.

That's in just 11 or so days.

That's the deadline for these kinds of Then, on February 2, every other agency funding must be extended there.

What Congres intend to do is write 12 different appropriations bills to get them thro By the way, that is something that has not happened in Congress, you know, this century.

They want to do that, called regular order, but, right now, it's just -- it's hard to imagine how they're able to do that in the next two weeks.

Could there be a short-term bill?

Yes, always, there could But House Speaker Mike J So we're at that point again, where this will test a House speaker.

Conservatives -- I talked to Chip Roy earlier today.

He said he has major problems with this deal.

But how about Democratic Leader Schumer in Here's what he had to say today.

SEN. CHUCK SCHUME to the painful and draconian cuts that the hard right, particularly those in the Freedom Caucus, clamored for.

LISA DESJARDINS: Yes, but agai Freedom Caucus really will be an issue in terms of getting the votes and the pressure to try and figure out this deal and getting it through quickly.

I think that first January 19 deadline is going to be hard GEOFF BENNETT: And then adding to all of this, there are ongoing talks about border and Ukraine funding.

Where does all o LISA DESJARD Today, we saw that again.

The senators trying to nego But just in the past few minutes, one of the key senators, conservative Jim of Oklahoma came out saying he does not think they will be able to write a deal this week.

Could we get an outline?

Maybe.

But I talked It's clear it's just so complicated.

While they have closed out some po like parole.

What does that mean?

Well, it als It's a real problem as we get into January And some in the House say they won't pass an about, until there's a border deal.

So, we're at a point that is really difficu And it couldn't just -- might just be rocky, but really difficult for the country the next few weeks ahead.

GEOFF BENNET LISA DESJARDINS: You're welcome.

AMNA NAWAZ: President Biden delivered his second campaign speech of the year today at the Mother Emanuel AME Church in South Carolina.

As Laura Barron-Lopez explains, the president continues to warn about extrem to the nation's democracy.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Spea in 2015, President Biden warned that the same hate that motivated their killer still threatens the country.

JOE BIDEN, P hate and rage, propelled by not just gunpowder bu haunted this nation.

What is that poison?

White supremacy.

Oh, it is.

It's a poison.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: J.A.

Moore's sister, Myra Thompson, Moore is a Democratic state representative in South Carolina and joins me now.

Representative Moore, thank you for being here.

You were at the president's speech nearly nine years ago, including your sister.

What did you think of his remarks?

STATE REP. J.A.

MOORE (D-SC) so important, as they kick off President Biden and Vice President Harris kicks off the election, to come here.

I mean, I th It was sobering.

And I was appreciative that he came.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: What has your experienc years since your sister was killed?

STATE REP. J.A.

MOORE: It's I still pray It's a place where so many of us find as a sanctuary, for me, of what evil looks like, what it feels like, and the residual effects of white supremacy and domestic terrorism.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: And You worship at a different church.

But what is it like when you visit AME now?

STATE REP. J.A.

MOORE: Yes, Emanuel in direct concert with talking about or commemorating that devastating and fateful night.

It's difficu And it's something that over the past almost nine years I I mean, I would love to turn back the hands of time to before that terrible night and be able to find sanctuary in such a historic place that's meant so much and so many people, but it's very difficult for me.

Today was a very, very challengin my sister and the eight other parishioners.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Since the Charleston shooting, mass s El Paso and Buffalo were all motivated by racism or antisemitism.

Do you think that white supremacist violence has gotten worse in the years since the Charleston shooting?

STATE REP. J.A.

MOORE: What' Donald Trump has given a h president himself is a white supremacist, but what he has done is stoked that suppressed feelings and emotions out of so many Americans that are these MAGA Republicans.

So, not in just the aftermath of the shooting, but the maturation of Donald Trump going down those escalators, we have just seen increase in white supremacy in the forefront more so than before.

LAURA BARRON to address this type of violence?

STATE REP. J.A.

MOORE: South as their law.

Even after something so tragic happened to my sister and to those eight other parish one of whom, Senator Clementa Pinckney, was the pastor of the church and a senator at the time, and still we haven't been able to do that.

No, I mean, I think there's a lot more that racism and so on and so forth.

And we need to do a lot more.

So, no, I think ther But I'm going to say this to make sure I'm clear.

That's not because the Biden administration has not tried.

They have done a wonderful job of pushing forward individuals and polici that.

But you're t bedrock of the country was designed and -- with a racist background.

So, no, three years or four years isn't going to change it all.

It's a lot more work that needs to be done.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Pres and an attempt to erase history, be it the history of January 6 or of slavery.

How much faith do you have that America can have an honest conversation about the same white supremacist violence that took your sister and that has killed other people since?

STATE REP. J.A.

MOORE: One o willingness to have these conversations about race, whereas, before, people didn't feel like they had permission.

But, as you can im colleagues, with so many people now about people that may have that predetermined feelings about people because of their race that they didn't even know before, but they're willing to explore now, in the aftermath of this tragedy and that is in the forefront.

So, yes, I mean, I think that, for sure, that is happening.

But what I'm most worried about is that what we haven't seen is an end of white supremacy in itself.

One thing to It's another thing to And I think we have a lo LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Representative J.A.

Moore of South C STATE REP. J.A.

MOORE: Thank you for coverin Thank you all.

AMNA NAWAZ: With just a week to go before the GOP's firs cycle, republican candidates are crisscrossing the first-in-the-nation caucus state, hoping to court a key voting bloc.

Freezing temperatures didn't slow down Sunday services at the First Church of God in Des Moines.

Pastor Charl our culture.

Where Pastor PASTOR CHARLES HUNDLEY: It doesn't matter, lord, what our opinion is.

It's really what's your opinion that matters.

But you have given us the privilege of bei to vote.

AMNA NAWAZ: been evangelical Christians.

And they could once again be critical to dete In a recent Des Moines Register/NBC News Iowa poll, former President Donald Trump was their overwhelming favorite, garnering support from more than 50 percent of Republican evangelicals, 25 points ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

CINDY CAREY, Church Attendee: I am going to be for Trump That's just me.

AMNA NAWAZ: a distinction between Trump's personal life and his political positions.

CINDY CAREY: I wouldn't vote for him as my pastor.

I want him to lead our nation back to that city on a hill, He supports life.

He is somebody w He wants us to have closed borders, so we can be a nation.

AMNA NAWAZ: Trump took up that message as he barnstormed Iowa over the weekend, hitting the Biden administration for record border crossings last month.

DONALD TRUMP, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Pres Millions of They are invading us, like a military invasion.

AMNA NAWAZ: And despite his lead, he tur DONALD TRUMP: Nikki would sell you out just like she sold me out.

AMNA NAWAZ: Just weeks after former South Carolina Governor Nikki Ha for not mentioning slavery as the cause of the Civil War, Trump's own comments drew backlash.

DONALD TRUMP: The Civil War was so fascinating, so horrible.

So many mistakes were made.

See, there was something I th NIKKI HALEY (R), Presidential Candidate: The sky is clearing up.

It's almost there.

But what an import AMNA NAWAZ: Haley also campaigned alternative, and she dismissed Trump's attacks on the campaign trail and airwaves.

NIKKI HALEY: God bless President Trump.

He's been on a temper tantrum ever saying is not true.

AMNA NAWAZ: DeSantis m GOV.

RON DESANTIS Donald Trump is running for his issues.

Nikki Haley is running for her donors' issues.

I'm running for your issues and your family's issues AMNA NAWAZ: But Trump continued his campaign of grievance politics, telling voters that he's fighting on their behalf.

DONALD TRUMP: They want And in the end, they're not after me.

They're after you.

I just happe AMNA NAWAZ: It's that message li ke Ron Betts, who is planning to support Trump next week.

RON BETTS, Church Attendee: I just think he exemplifies everything t if he was here.

In fact, I think they are doing the AMNA NAWAZ: For analysis of this final week of the Iowa campaign, we turn to our Politics Monday team.

That's Amy W Great to see you both.

AMY WALTER, TAMARA KEITH AMNA NAWAZ: we talk about this last week of Iowa The latest Des Moines Register/NBC News Iowa po There's 51 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers saying they will support him, 19 percent for Mr. DeSantis, 16 percent for Haley, 5 percent for Vivek Ramaswamy, and 4 percent for former Governor Chris Christie.

Amy, we talk a lot about DeSantis and H first contest.

What does a AMY WALTER: Yes.

Well, obviou AMNA NAWAZ: Right.

AMY WALTER: that we have seen for these last few weeks, but if he won by that margin, that would be the biggest margin that any competitive Republican caucus winner has come out of Iowa with.

Fifty percent would also be a statement, because for weeks -- now, well not for weeks -- for the entire campaign, his rivals have made the case that there is a base of support for Donald Trump, but there's a bigger base of support for people who are willing to look beyond Donald Trump, whether they are truly voters on the Republican side who don't want to see Donald Trump or people who are ready to maybe turn the page, even though they do like Donald Trump.

With 50 perc And folks I talk to in this state, they do see a real fight for second Ha ley has had a great deal of momentum.

We haven't seen polls since the ho that we're seeing with she and Trump is having an impact.

But I think that, for Ron DeSantis, he has the most at stake, certainly, the endorsements and he's really banked his entire campaign on doing well in Iowa.

Losing whether it's by 10 or 20 or 30 points, it's hard to turn that into a win.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tam, is this existential for Ron DeSantis?

TAMARA KEITH: He has done the full Grassley.

He's gone to all 99 counties.

He has moved most of h He came in with such incredibly high expectations that, if he then comes in third plac that is existential.

That is a major Now, he had a press call with reporters today an I'm going to be doing in New Hampshire.

I have got events in New I have got eve I have got events in N He's got plans, but plans can change Absolutely, plans can change if it doesn't go well for him.

AMNA NAWAZ: One of the keys... AMY WALTER: TAMARA KEITH AMNA NAWAZ: AMY WALTER: campaign and her supporters are.

AMNA NAWAZ: Another key part o But one -- the huge le this key bloc we talk a lot about in Iowa, which is those white evangelicals in the st It hasn't always been that way, though.

He hasn't always had their Ba ck in 2016, it was about That is now up to 51 percent.

Tam, how do you look at those Ho w did he get that kind of support growth?

TAMARA KEITH: OK, so in 2016, he was t not a Bible verse, but like a joke about a bar.

And now he is the person who put on the Supreme Court a conservative majority that overturned Roe v. Wade and gave evangelical Christians the Dobbs decision.

I mean, what more does he need to do?

And also I think that, absolutely, as that one voter said, to be their pastor.

But part of Christianity is forgiveness.

And I think that a lot of his sort of personal sins have been forgiven by AM NA NAWAZ: Amy, how do you look at that?

AMY WALTER: It themselves as evangelical, it's less about the religious views than their political views.

And being white evangelical and being a supporter of Trump have now become synonymous, so that, yes, I do think the Dobbs case and delivering on some of those issues matters a lot, but it's also the fact that they see that their identity, their cultural identity, somebody who's fighting for them.

We talked -- y is a group of people who are under siege by the left, and the only person standing up for them is Donald Trump.

AMNA NAWAZ: That's a AMY WALTER: AMNA NAWAZ: this sort of strain of revisionist history in these closing messages before Iowa, not just looking back to three years ago and the January 6 insurrection.

He calls the people who carried out the violent attack patriots and hostages sh ould all be pardoned, but going back to the Civil War, and we are now talking about the root cause of the Civil War.

Somehow, that's up for debate.

You heard Mr. Biden, President at the Mother Emanuel AME Church today.

Just take a listen to what he said.

JOE BIDEN, President of th to know.

Slavery was (APPLAUSE) JOE BIDEN: T Now -- now we're living in an era of a second lost cause.

Once again, there are some in this country trying, trying to turn a loss into a lie.

a lie which, if allowed to live, will once again bring terrib AMNA NAWAZ: Amy, this conversation is not about policy or politics.

We're talking about whose version of history you're going t AMY WALTER: That's exactly right, and that's th to make here between a debate about the Civil War, which s many years ago, or the fight had been over many years ago, to now, which is his point being, if you're going to lie about the cause of the Civil War, as had -- we had seen, whether it's calling it the noble cause, and you're going to lie about the election results, lie about what happened on January 6, those things share one thing in common, especially for Black voters.

They are den What the president was saying from the pulpit toda was stolen, what Donald Trump is telling you, the voters in these pulpits, many of whom saw your grandparents and your parents denied the right to vote, he's saying your voice and your vote doesn't matter.

AMNA NAWAZ: Ta his record, right?

TAMARA KEITH Don't worry.

We're going However, his campaign is very much centered on, what America d What America do you want to see?

And he is making an argument that Donald Tr as he calls them, that they have a different vision of America and that it is antidemocratic.

And so that is very clearly becoming the centerpiece of President Biden's campaign.

He is drawing a through line from Charlottesville and what happened at Mother Emanuel right through to January 6, saying it's about extremism and political violence and that that isn't something that Americans should stand for.

And there is some indication that, actually, a lot of A And he is trying to build a coalition of people who don't want the history of January 6 revised.

They may not necessarily want the policies he is selling.

And that's what he's trying to thread.

And also it's worth noting that he went That's the state that will hold the first Democratic primary.

AMNA NAWAZ: Right.

TAMARA KEITH: It in his base, and that he has struggled with somewhat, though you wouldn't know it from the call and response there at Mother Emanuel.

AMNA NAWAZ: Well, let's remember caucuses or rallies.

It's all about who turns up Just in the last few seconds we have lef (CROSSTALK) AMY WALTER: It's suppose I know Iowans ar But when you look at the last poll, say, tha committed to showing up and voting were Ron DeSantis supporters, actually.

This could matter in terms of who comes in second is folks who are willing to brave really, really cold weather.

AMNA NAWAZ: TAMARA KEITH I'm watching cold weather.

What I'm als Does he win by a lot, or does he win by a small enough margin that it gives Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis some jet fumes to go on?

AMNA NAWAZ: We will know in a week.

AMY WALTER: AMNA NAWAZ: AMY WALTER: Thank you.

TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.

AMY WALTER: You're welcome.

AMNA NAWAZ: College football will have a new national champion tonigh on Washington in Houston.

Both are undefeated and aiming to win their Bu t, as Stephanie Sy explains, this championship game is the end of an era for college football with major changes coming next year.

STEPHANIE SY: Starting next year, the college footba allowing a dozen teams to compete for the title.

And that's just one of the dramatic changes affecting what has becom Just before the bowl season began, NCAA President Charlie Baker unveiled a new proposal that would impact all college sports.

It would allow Division I schools to pay athlete Colleges that participated would have to set aside a minimum of $30,000 per athlete for at least half of all its athletes.

Schools also could have direct agreements with athletes over their likeness.

Pat Forde is He's a senior writer for Pat, I'm reminded about something Deion Sanders said recently about the conference realign in college football.

He said, all t It's about a bag.

And everyone's chasing that ba How does this new proposal by Charlie Baker affect the chase f PAT FORDE, "Sports Illustrated": Well, I think it's an acknowledgement, Stephanie, that the bag is the game, that that is what's going on.

And that if the NCAA is going to stay ahead of the lawsuits that are hounding them and trying to basically force an employee-employer relationship, if they want to maintain any kind of antitrust exemption, if they want to get Congress to help maintain college sports as even remotely what we're used to, I think they see this as a necessary step, that they have to give some of the proceeds directly to the athletes and can't cloak it in other means or fashions, but just literally hand them the money.

STEPHANIE SY: And for all the reasons you just described, this is just a It 's very complex.

If schools, though, were allowed only to the athletes who play large revenue-generating sports like football, or does it actually increase opportunities for good athletes that might not get the big endorsement money?

PAT FORDE: Well, that still remains to be seen to a degree, but there are certainly concerns about where the money would go.

And we will start to learn more at the NCAA conv we're going to get maybe a little bit more detail on proposals or counterproposals that have been made in this area.

But we're talking about a minimum of $30,000 fo Who is that half?

Who gets tha We can rest The men's basketball players are almost assuredly going to get t There will be a Title IX component to this, where women athletes also would some of them.

But then who Where is tha And I think, if you' probably are thinking that you're going to have a hard time getting a hold of that money.

And the other thing there, the other piece of this is, we're talking of $30,000 for half of your athletes.

A lot of them are going to pay a lot more than tha So we're talking $6 million, $8 mill would have to budget for.

And that's going to in the sports too.

STEPHANIE SY: Ni in a semipro direction already.

Saban's had a lot to say about all of this, of course.

But does Charlie Baker's proposal show that college sports are bound to be free market enterprise?

PAT FORDE: Well, And then the question is, the NCAA, as they often do with rules thread a needle, which keeps it from being flat-out professional sports, that keeps it from athletes being employees, that keeps the NCAA's antitrust status.

I don't know whether they're going to be able to pull this off.

I mean, there are lawsuits right now pending that damages against NCAA schools.

And so they're kind of backed into a corner here, and they're trying to figure out a way to keep college sports as part of campus and part of higher education.

But it gets harder and harder with each kind of erosion of the NCAA's stance in a lot of these things.

So this is t that may be sustainable.

But, again, they're going They're going to need to win some battl some lawsuits.

STEPHANIE SY PAT FORDE: Yes, it does, absolutely.

Now, what we're going to find to hear counterproposals and people that will probably try to poke some holes in this and at least to say, let's find a little bit better way.

Charlie Baker's proposal, while certainly bold and a big step forward and th at I think needed to happen, it's very light on details.

And the devil has always been in the details of trying to work out something fo if not thousands of colleges at multiple different levels.

And one key part of this proposal is potentially a super division of schools that may just 50, 60, 80 schools, and they can be further deregulated in what they can give to athletes, in terms of what they can afford.

Now, the problem there i I think, like to see all comers, so to speak, a 120-school division of college -- major college football, a 350-school division of major college basketball that makes the NCAA Tournament so much fun when the underdogs win those games.

Do we eventually move the big dogs so far away that there is no other schools?

That's kind STEPHANIE SY: And speaking of co writer go without getting his take on the championship game coming up in Houston.

Pat, what will you be looking out for in this matchup between Washington and Michigan?

PAT FORDE: Yes, should be a great matchup.

Really looking forward to it, the pa and the receivers, a lot of first round NFL talent there, against really the brute force and blunt force of Michigan in the way of their style of play.

And Michigan's been under the microscope with some controversies about NCAA They have handled it.

They have an We have got two We're going to have a very worthy champion one way or the o STEPHANIE SY: Pat Forde with "Sports Illustra Thanks so much for joining us, Pat.

PAT FORDE: Thank you, Step AMNA NAWAZ: And that i I'm Amna Nawaz.

GEOFF BENNETT: And I'm Geoff Thanks for spending part of your evening with us.